A Stark Warning from United24
A chilling warning, presented as a ‘Possible History’ project, has emerged from United24, Ukraine’s official fundraising platform. Launched by President Zelenskyy in 2022, the initiative published this stark forecast on the third anniversary of the war, aiming to alert Europe to the potential consequences of allowing Russia to encroach further on the continent’s borders.
Forecast Timeline and Military Escalation
The unsettling prediction, drawing on February 2025 data from Estonian and Danish intelligence, paints a potential timeline that begins with Russia securing a favorable peace deal in the present year. This hypothetical scenario includes the return of Russian state media presence to Europe, setting a disquieting stage for future developments.
According to the forecast, the situation could escalate dramatically within five years, potentially leading to a hot conflict between Russia and NATO forces. The intelligence assessments suggest Russia is mobilizing resources not just for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine but also in preparation for a potential confrontation with NATO.
The hypothetical timeline posits that by July of this year, Russia could commence military exercises in Belarus near the borders of Poland and Lithuania. This could pave the way for future actions in Europe. With support from the ‘puppet government’ in Transnistria, Russia might capture Moldova within fifteen months of the initial peace deal. Experts warn that Russia seeks to keep Moldova in ‘geopolitical limbo’ by worsening internal divisions and blocking reforms.
Cyber Threats and Hybrid Warfare
By the summer of 2027, Europe could face significant internet outages, possibly due to cut undersea cables. These concerns stem from incidents in the Baltic last November, highlighting the vulnerability of critical global infrastructure. By December 2028, Europeans might be searching for terms like ‘what is hybrid war?’ or ‘nearest bombshelters Zurich,’ reflecting heightened tension and hybrid warfare tactics.
By mid-2029, pro-Russian governments could emerge in Slovakia and Hungary, agreeing to host Russian military bases. Soon after, European nations might react by reinstating conscription and dramatically increasing defense spending, likely at the expense of social programs. The scenario culminates in September 2030 with Vladimir Putin announcing a new ‘special military operation’ targeting NATO, involving the crossing of Polish and Finnish borders.
United24’s Warning and Intelligence Backing
United24 accompanies this forecast with a disclaimer: “What if Russia reaches Europe’s borders? It may sound dystopian, but just three years ago, war in Europe and missile strikes on Kyiv seemed unthinkable, too.” This serves as a stark reminder of how quickly unthinkable events can materialize.
The project, released on February 24, 2025, marks the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, referred to by Russia as a ‘special military operation.’ The scenario is based on studies from Estonian and Danish intelligence agencies, which conclude that Russia is mobilizing for a potential NATO conflict beyond Ukraine.
Political Shifts and Peace Deal Concerns
Concerns about a weak peace deal with Russia remain high across Europe. Many fear such an agreement could leave Ukraine and the continent vulnerable to further aggression, especially in light of a perceived shift in U.S. policy.
The Biden administration provided extensive support to Ukraine, but under Donald Trump, there’s been a significant shift. Reports suggest the U.S. and Russia have met in Riyadh to discuss peace. However, Trump’s openness to concessions, without offering strong security guarantees to Kyiv, has raised alarms.
A major issue is the possible deployment of peacekeepers in Ukraine post-deal. While the UK and France are open to contributing forces, Trump’s comments to French President Emmanuel Macron suggest he believes Putin would accept peacekeepers. This contradicts prior Kremlin statements labeling such a move as escalatory.
Russian Denials and European Intelligence Warnings
Russia has dismissed intelligence warnings, with its UK embassy claiming it poses no threat and accusing the British government of fabricating threats to deflect from internal issues. Nonetheless, European intelligence agencies warn that Russia is preparing for future conflict.
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) reports that Russian intelligence is enhancing its sabotage capabilities in Europe, likely in preparation for long-term confrontation with NATO. The SAB warns that freezing the Ukrainian conflict along current battle lines could allow Moscow to bolster its military near NATO’s northeastern flank.
Denmark similarly concluded last year that Russia might attack a NATO country within three to five years to test the alliance’s Article 5 commitment. President Zelenskyy echoed this concern, warning of Russian troop buildups in Belarus as a potential staging area for attacks.
Threats to Moldova and Internet Infrastructure
European leaders fear that normalizing relations with Russia too soon would set a dangerous precedent. If peace comes with territorial concessions and no long-term guarantees, United24 predicts that Russian drills in Belarus could begin as early as July 2025. By October 2026, Russia might capture Moldova, reportedly with help from North Korean troops, referencing past reports of their presence in the Kursk region.
Fears of Russian sabotage and hybrid warfare are growing. United24 includes scenarios of attacks on internet infrastructure, supported by past Baltic cable disruptions and Russia’s internal tests of digital isolation. A former EU official told the Guardian the bloc is unprepared for such threats, lacking resources to counter sabotage, assassination, and infrastructure attacks.
The report emphasizes that hybrid warfare and propaganda will persist if sanctions are lifted. United24 warns that a successful Russian propaganda machine, freed from constraints, could destabilize Europe politically and socially.
Broader Strategic Goals and Media Messaging
Putin continues to deny imperial ambitions, but United24 argues he seeks to restore ‘imperial lands’ through special military operations, potentially targeting the Baltics and NATO countries. AI-generated images were used in the report to visualize this speculative scenario.
Tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy surfaced when Trump canceled a news conference with the Ukrainian leader and claimed on social media that Zelenskyy was “not ready for peace.” This reflects a shift in U.S. foreign policy and raises concerns in Europe about losing crucial American support.
Push for European Defense Autonomy
European leaders increasingly see the need for defense self-reliance. Achieving this will be difficult and time-consuming, requiring a transformation in defense postures and long-term investment.
European officials were already in discussions to define acceptable peace terms and aid packages for Ukraine. Meetings led by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the European Council were scheduled to accelerate defense planning and clarify security guarantees.
Germany’s president expressed shock over recent events in Washington, saying he never imagined having to defend Ukraine from the U.S. Macron and EU leaders echoed the urgency, calling for a more powerful Europe. EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, asserted that Europe must now take the lead in supporting Ukraine.
Financial Hurdles and Capability Gaps
However, transitioning to European defense independence faces hurdles. The financial burden is substantial. The U.S. has contributed approximately $114 billion in aid to Ukraine, while Europe has given $132 billion. Replacing U.S.-provided weapons systems remains a significant challenge.
Though European military spending rose 30% since 2021, many NATO members still fall short of the 2% GDP defense spending guideline. Budget limitations and economic pressures make ramping up support politically difficult, especially in countries like Germany, France, and Belgium.
This underscores the urgent need for unified political will and sustained investment if Europe is to assume greater responsibility for its own defense while continuing to support Ukraine.
