Major shifts could be in store for the shelves of your go-to warehouse club. If stocking the pantry or replacing that appliance in the kitchen has gone by the wayside, then perhaps now is the time to get back in high gear.
Why? Trump tariffs are due for renewal on July 9, which could alter prices. This potential alteration does not only target small shops, but even giants like Costco, where shoppers tend to be penny-pinchers by buying in bulk.
Costco’s gigantic product line and bulk sales rely heavily on imports. CEO Ron Vachris reported that roughly a third of Costco’s products are imported. This huge percentage indicates that import duty variations would actually make a difference in what you pay the cashier.
The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) reported that in March 2025, the most destination for Costco imports was China with a significant 1,731 shipments. Other leading sources included Norway at 72 shipments and India at 41 shipments. Costco’s reach internationally is broader still, though, since the retailer imports from Canada, Mexico, Asia, and the European Union (EU) as well.
As the 90-day tariff break expires, the time is good to consider how it might affect your budget. For a fixed-income retiree or just anybody who wants to get the biggest bang for their buck, riding out where prices are currently at Costco before they might be higher might be a wise move. Let’s check out some specific places in the store that might experience price changes.
Seafood Exports
One sector where you might feel the pinch is seafood. As reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, eighty percent of seafood is imported. While depending on overseas manufacturers has traditionally kept prices in line, this delicate equilibrium can change when bilateral tariffs are reinstated.
Several of the largest supplier nations will see tariffs increase. Canada could see its tariff increase by 25%, Vietnam by 46%, India by 26%, and Indonesia by 32%. If a lot of the shrimp, fish, or other seafood you buy at Costco is from those countries, those percentage points may add up in the form of higher prices.
Retirees who employ frozen seafood to save on costs and reduce shopping trips might be interested. Assuming no shelf, stocking your freezer with your favorite frozen shrimp or fish could freeze in today’s prices prior to any tariff-hiked increases taking effect.
Cooking Oils
The cooking oil is another commodity found in the pantry that can become more expensive. Already expensive olive oil, for instance, can increase even more with tariffs placed upon it. Olive oil tends to be imported from Mediterranean countries such as Italy and Spain.
These EU nations are subject to an EU tariff which is extremely disparate, ranging as low as 4.4% right up to 50%. That broad range shows potential volatility in olive oil prices, so it is an excellent candidate for forward purchasing if you use it extensively.
If you enjoy cooking with avocado oil, that too can be affected. Stock your pantry shelves so you might be able to help prevent the 5% tariff levied on Mexico. Mexico is a major producer of avocados in the world, and a tariff on Mexican imports would have a direct effect on the cost of avocado oil.
Spices
Spices add flavor and nutrients to our cuisine, but all of them are imported. India, for instance, is one of the largest producers and exporters of such spices as common ones as cumin, turmeric, cinnamon, and cloves. These are staple ingredients in most households.
You’ll also find other spices at Costco that originate overseas. Kirkland vanilla bean, which is a common ingredient in baking and other dishes, comes from Madagascar, an island off the Indian Ocean. According to Eating Well, vanilla from this region could face a significant 47% tariff, which could certainly make that extract pricier.
China is also a supplier of most spices around the globe, including to stores such as Costco. Chinese spices are pepper, cinnamon, ginger, chile, and anise. The diverse sources of our spice racks subject tariff on goods from various nations in a position to impact the cost of flavoring your food.
Electronics and Appliances
Moving beyond the pantry, electronics could also see price adjustments. If you’ve been considering buying a new iPhone from Costco, the price might be higher in a month. This is due in part to a 25% tariff imposed by President Trump on Apple products manufactured outside the U.S.
Some of the nations where Apple has outsourced iPhone production include China, India, and Vietnam. While production facilities can shift, tariffs on inbound products from the significant production regions could directly impact the cost of the latest phone or other Apple products available at Costco.
It’s not just phones; it may be other electronic devices that are affected. TVs and headphones are produced in some of these overseas locations, such as China, the EU, more broadly Asia, and Mexico. Adding 25% to merchandise that comes in from these locations may make a new TV or a pair of headphones a bigger investment.
If it has been on your mind to upgrade your home appliances, you might want to buy them as early as you can. The biggest producer of appliances in the world is in China, which is a nation often affected by tariffs. Costco retails big appliance brands such as LG Products.
LG offers a range of large and compact appliances in Costco, including refrigerators, dishwashers, washers, and dryers. They are produced in nations like China and South Korea. With potential tariffs on goods imported from these production regions, the price of replacing a large appliance could increase.
Retail Trends and Daily Staples
The tariff discussion is not the sole force behind prices and consumer habits at warehouse clubs such as Costco. Consider the recent example with Costco and Lululemon. Weeks after its cut in full-year profit estimate put the stock down on its worst day in over five years, Lululemon shares have been under pressure, falling more than 36% year to date.
In an effort to become more powerful, the Canadian athletic apparel retailer is moving against what it has characterized as “unauthorized” copies of its top-selling yoga pants, hoodies, and jackets. This encompasses a lawsuit filed last week against Costco, which alleges the wholesale giant copied its intellectual property.
Lululemon argues that Costco is “illegally” benefiting from its “reputation, goodwill and sweat equity” by selling pirated copies of its products in Costco’s own Kirkland brand. This case provides a strong insight into the dynamics of retail competition and brand value.
While not necessarily immediately impacted by import duties in the same way as electronics or foodstuffs imported, paper towels can also just as easily disappear once people start anticipating shortages or higher prices due to overall economic instability.
Likewise, your morning routine might be slightly more expensive. Most coffee and much of the tea leaves are imported. If tariffs are imposed on the countries where these products are made, the price may increase. Costco offers big containers and bulk packs of both tea and coffee, which have a lot of storage room and can remain fresh for months.
Even cleaning supplies around the house might see costs rise. Laundry detergent is not one of the first things that come to mind when thinking about trade wars, but a lot of the raw material used to produce cleaning supplies is imported. Chemicals like surfactants and fragrance are in the crosshairs of tariffs.
Companies like Procter & Gamble (P&G), owner of brands like Tide, have already indicated that tariffs will end up being a price hike on their product, according to Reuters. Kirkland laundry detergent is a budget-friendly choice at $19.99 for a container that can perform up to 146 loads. It’s also renowned for its ability to get out stains.
Taking these elements into consideration, it is clear that the looming expiration of the 90-day tariff break is something consumers need to consider. Trade wars, and even threats of them, tend to raise prices on everyday items. Among the very first things affected are often those we use on a daily basis.
If you’re a Costco member, especially if you’re on a fixed income or simply budget-conscious, it might be smart to think ahead. Reviewing your needs for potentially impacted items – from seafood and cooking oils to electronics and even detergent – and deciding whether to stock up now could be a pragmatic approach before potential price hikes or temporary shortages hit.
It all comes down to knowledge about global supply chains, overseas trade policies, competition in markets, and even consumer trends like the popularity of ‘dupes’. While availability and price can always vary by location, having an understanding of what could potentially influence the price of your average buys gives you the intelligence to make smart decisions on when and what to buy from the warehouse.
Fast forward to July 9th and beyond, tracking the Costco price levels and considering the implications of the tariffs that are about to expire could be a good strategy for planning your family budget over the next few months. It’s all about being ahead of the game in a dynamic market
